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tv   Up W Steve Kornacki  MSNBC  September 7, 2014 5:00am-7:01am PDT

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's open for everyone. there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. the new coalition of the willing. thanks forgetting up with us this first sunday in the month of september. a busy day already in iraq where the u.s. military has launched air strikes against isis fighters trying to gain control of the hadifa dam. the group has marched eastward from syria across iraq in recent
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months. the moz all dam is the largest of iraq's dams, described as the most dangerous dam in the world. it's feared isis could use the dam not only to control access to electricity and water. also potential the terror group could unleash a wall of water into the valley below and that includes the city of bagdad. the idea of water as a weapon of mass destruction. isis took the dam at one point, baugh sustained campaign of u.s. air strikes has helped to force the militants out. the haditha dam is iraq's second largest dam, just as vital to providing water and electricity to iraqis in the western part of the country. so far isis has failed to capture that dam. on friday at a nato summit in wales, president obama described the air strikes they would keep using to fight isis. >> you initially push them back.
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you systematically degrade their capabilities. you narrow their scope of action. you slowly shrink the space, the territory that they may control. you take out their leadership, and over time they are not able to conduct the same kinds of terrorist attacks as they once could. >> in a move that has some ek v echoes to the march to the war in iraq by his predecessor, the assembly of the coalition of the willing, as he called it, president obama has recruited nine allies to form a coalition to take on isis. so one week after president obama said he didn't yet have a strategy to defeat isis, a plan is beginning to take shape. the goal is to defeat a terror group that emerged after the united states spent more than a decade and a lot of blood and treasure trying to defeat a different terror group, one that has broken ties with isis
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because they believe isis is too extreme. what will it take to defeat the new terror threat. can anything be done to keep another one, a different one from emerging in the process? joining me to discuss this is democratic congressman jim mcdermott and hamid from the brooks kings institute who wrote "temptations of power." thank you for joining us. if the goal is to defeat isis, how do you do it? i want to start with a more fundamental question to both of you, posed by tom friedman who was talking about isis, what goals the u.s. should have. he wrote "there are no words to describe the vileness of the video be headings of two american journalists, but i have no doubt that they're meant to get us to overreact, ala 9/11, rush off again without a strategy. isis is awful, he writes, but it is not a threat to america's
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homeland. congressman, let me start with you on that basic point. isis is awful, but not a threat to america's homeland? do you agree with that. >> i don't often agree with tom friedman, but on that one i do. the problem we've had in the past is beingism pull sive and what's going on is that people are upset because the president is thoughtful and careful and deliberative. that's really a wonderful change from the last president who was impulsive who jumped in and did stuff without really understanding what he's getting into. the president has an impossible situation here. but he is handling it about as well as i think anybody could. >> shadi, what's your reaction to what tom friedman wrote, not saying it doesn't mean that isis doesn't have to be dealt with, do you agree it's not a threat to the u.s. homeland? >> isis is very much consumed in iraq and syria now, but they could and probably will be a
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threat to the homeland at some later point. it's hard to anticipate. they've been quite clear they do have designs on attacking the u.s. and u.s. interests. >> so what is the best strategy to deal with a group like that, hamid, would you say? if you think there might be a threat somewhere down the road, but not an imminent threat right now, how should this be dealt with? we have the limited air strikes and the attempt to build up the iraqi military and get the kurds in, trying to build a coalition. is than appropriate approach? >> i agree with the congressman being thoughtful is the way to go. the problem is we've known isis and other extremist groups have been a threat for more than two years now. this was precisely the warning in regards to syria, if we don't do more to intervene earlier and support the so-called moderate rebels, groups like isis will rise to prominence.
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it's not as if this just started last week or even two months ago. the other thing i would just note, if we look at obama's nato summit remarks, there was a big red flag that came out for me when i was reading that. he said we are going to degrade and ultimately defeat isis, the way we went after al qaeda. but isis is a fuchbdmentally different beast than al qaeda is. al qaeda was a kind of old school terrorist group that was trying to destroy and didn't really have a vision forbidding anything. isis, on the other hand, controls large swaths of territory. it runs local administrations. it provides some degree of law and order. it has real aspirations to govern. obviously in its own vicious way, but that's a different kind of model. >> so based on what you're describing, based on how you understand isis and what you understand it to be, what are the steps the united states should be taking to defeat that?
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>> so if isis is a kind of proto state, than we can treat it as we would a terrorist group. that means that there has to be a broader vision that looks at the root causes of isis' rise, which is a failure of governance, which is the brutal policies of bashar are al assad in syria. so a major component has to be boosting the mainstream rebel forces in syria. and there's been some rhetoric about that from obama and secretary kerry, but no real new initiatives. there has to be a third force in syria that can counter both isis and the assad regime. but we haven't been serious about that. >> congressman mcdermott, what do you say to that? the idea of creating a third force in syria the united states can align with? >> i think the united states should be very careful about how far they get in. we have over estimated our ability to use military power to control the situation beginning with rumsfeld saying we would be
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into iraq and out within 90 days. that was nonsense then. and this idea we can control the present situation with military power or by throwing arms around -- we have made the mistake over and over again in this region of the world, arming people and turning out the arms are used against us. we armed the iraq army and isis took those arms away and that's where they get the humvees and much of the ammunition and so forth that they're using. so that's what makes it so difficult for the president. i think this is going to have to be handled diplomatically, ultimately. we have to get an elected official into iraq who is willing to accept a government made up of shia, sunni, kurd, christian, everybody. turkmen all have to be in the government. >> congressman do you think that's possible in iraq? that's the question that hangs overall this, when you look at how the story of the creation of
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iraq after world war i, we put borders on the map. have these three groups ever been able to get along and exist together? >> well, they did under saddam hussein. sure, there was a dictator, there was a strong man. so you're going to have -- you're going to wind up with a strong man of some sort. it will not be a thug like maliki who is perceived by many, many, many people in iraq as being too closely tied to iran. we've got to give this new man a chance to put a government together. i don't think we have any alternative but going through a period of a lot of concern, but which rebels are you going to arm in syria? you just give me the names of the organizations and where we should make the drops of arms. there is no answer to that question. and that's why the president is being so careful. >> shadi, talking about being more aggressive in syria.
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do you have an answer to that question? >> there is a clear answer. we know who the various rebel groups are and the ones that oppose isis. most of them do. we can talk about the free syrian army, we can talk about non-extremist islamist rebel forces. we may not agree with them, may not like their ideology, but they are very much against isis. there has to be a broader coalition of rebel forces that agree on that common goal and we do know them. there has been a lot of research and analysis about who they are and which ones are better to support. they have been literally begging for more u.s. arms and assistance as recently as early july when isis was moving in and they were saying, if we don't get more help, we're going to be overrun. they were overrun. we can see how our lack of action has really had a devastating effect on the ground and demoralized those who look to the u.s. for moral and
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political leadership. >> my thanks from jim mcdermott from washington state and the brookings institute shadi hamid. still ahead, the domestic crisis waiting for president obama when he came home from that nato summit. will the president's decision to do nothing about immigration until after the midterm election have the kind of political payoff the white house is looking for. (vo) ours is a world of passengers. the red-eyes. (daughter) i'm really tired. (vo) the transfers. well, that's kid number three. (vo) the co-pilots. all sitting... ...trusting... ...waiting... ...for a safe arrival. introducing the all-new subaru legacy.
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back in june at the start of the summer, president obama seemed to make a promise, if congress continue to stonewall immigration reform, he would use executive power to acted on his own. he put a specific date on it, too. >> i've also directed secretary johnson and attorney general holder to identify additional actions my administration can
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take on our own within my existing legal authorities to do what congress refuses to do and fix as much of our immigration system as we can. if congress will not do their job, at least we can do ours. i expect the recommendations before the end of the summer and i intend to adopt those recommendations without further delay. >> that was june 30th, the president saying he would have a plan to act on his own on immigration by the end of the summer and he would i'm plechlt that plan without further delay. that is a threat that republicans have been railing against all summer long, a keep part of their claim that the president is overreaching and abusing his executive authority. lately some of president obama's democratic allies have been voicing concerns, too. most notably democrats running in tight senate races in red states. here is mark pryor, democrat of arkansas running in a very close re-election race in arkansas.
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he says obama doesn't have carte blanche to sidestep congress to get his way. obama began to hedge when he took questions from journalists at nato summit. he was asked if he would wait until after the november midterms to take that action. >> we need immigration reform. my overriding preference is to see congress act. we had bipartisan action in the senate. the house republicans have sat on it for over a year. that has damaged the economy. it has held america back. it is a mistake, and i'll be making an announcement soon. i want to be very clear, my intention is in the absence of action by congress, i'm going to do what i can do within the
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legal constraints of my office because it's the right thing to do for the country. >> fewer than 24 hours later, we got the answer to just how soon that announcement would come. >> breaking news just coming in during that break actually. the associated press is reporting white house officials say that president obama has decided to delay immigration action until after the november elections. >> quoting an aide who spoke anonymously to "the new york times," because the president wants to do this in a way that's sustainable and freer of the political environment we are currently in, the president will make his announcement before the end of the year. so that's the non-move, the nothing that the white house is doing or not doing to avoid endangering democrats in close races in red or purple states this fall. as we're about to discuss, doing nothing comes with risks of its own, too. joining me attorney raul reyes, roll call's editor and chief, and christine bellantoni and
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jane wolf editor at salon.com. christina, the basic politics of this are, the senate is up for grabs, battlegrounds in the red states. democrats don't want to lose pryor in arkansas. think they have a shot in kentucky. they don't want a backlash here. you knew in june when he made the threat the senate was competitive, too. so what happened? >> in fact, we knew two years ago this would be a difficult cycle. the party that holds the white house tend to lose seats when it is this time in the cycle. so mark pryor has been vulnerable, in fact, the number two most vulnerable on roll call's list. the numbers aren't shifting a who lot. if he did this, is mark pryor's number going to go down? he's not voting for something. was he a vote against immigration reform? i can't remember. i think he voted for it. either way his numbers are where they are. people like mark begich or mary
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landrieu or kay hagan, they're already set. it's going to be close in a lot of these states already. they're states that won in 2012. how much does that really shift? >> there was an article today, this was in politico, the spokesman for the nrsc, brad daze bring. he said the president and senate democrats are playing a cynical game, hoping americans paying attention now won't be after the election and it will backfire. joe, to pick up on what christina is saying, this confuses me about the politics. if this is a political decision, you're telegraphing we're still going to do this, the thing the republicans have been scoring points with their base all summer, they can still score points. >> brad day spring knows cynical. john boehner tweets or says in a
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statement he's so concerned about the poor hispanics that he doesn't care enough about -- >> this is designed with republican cynicism in mind. >> absolutely. it seems badly designed. maybe we're in a level of 11th dimensional chess where i'm too stupid to see why this is smart. i am too stupid to see why this is smart. it looks likes political malpractice to me. first of all, to say you're going to do it, give yourself a deadline at the end of the summer, second of all, even to come out friday night and suggest there's going to be action rather than my situation will be announced and it's not action. third, people were begging him to do this last spring. the idea -- this goes back to a consistent problem that some people in the base have with the president who we admire is that he waits and waits for republicans to be reasonable and to do the thing they ought to do either out of self-interest or some kind of moral obligation. they don't do it. they never do it. >> let me put it to you this
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way, raul. if it could be established -- this is hypothetical -- that holding off right now and doing it this way. let's say it saves mark pryor in arc saurks saves begich, saves the democratic senate, is it worth it then if it gives you an environment after the election where your party still has the senate? >> the most i would say is maybe. because to a certain extent i think the political cost of inaction or delaying executive action have been overstated. i do know this is a hypothetical. this is the reags. this summer while the president delayed his executive action, while we awaited it, 97,000 people were deported. between now and the end of the year, that's another 70,000. now, we know these are undocumented people. but just this week a study came up from the pew center looking at who are the undon'ted? 60% have been in this country ten years or more. 40% have citizen children. this is why i cannot overstate
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how angry, frustrated, disillusions the immigrant rights groups and latino community feels right now because these are people seeing their families torn apart, seeing their communities ruptured. okay. maybe it will do more good later. we know that we got here because of republican action. that's why we're at this point. that's why the president has to take executive action. that's true. still, it has been absolutely agonizing. it's caused tremendous pain and anguish for latinos. right after the election when they start thinking about 2016, they need to motivate latino voters. how are you going to do an about face and say now we need you, now we love you? >> this was in "the washington post" this morning, a quote from arturo car moan, executive director of present.org. it demonstrates for obama politics come before latino lives. the pickup on that point,
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christina, getting out of there coming out of the -- it was the key to the future for democrats. is there permanent damage to that relationship by an announcement like that? >> i think people are tired of being an into lated. they're told it's going to happen, told they're valuable and the status quo is the same. it is a broken immigration system. nobody is arguing with that. when you look at -- this is the political difference between democrats and republicans. republicans generally will take a vote that will make their members help their base closer to an election. democrats have consistently put off votes like this or big actions. think about the tax cut vote that nancy pelosi never held in 2010 before they lost the house. that is to say, we preserve tax cuts for the middle class and we'll end them for the wealthy. they kept saying they would do it and never did because they were worried about their vulnerable members. there are always going to be vulnerable members. >> that's an interesting point.
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this is sort of established by the 2012 election for the democrats. this is your future. this is the constituency you, in part, should be serving, and the decision ends up being, no, we've got to worry about this other constituency that may not vote. what the president has to say about the delay on immigration reform. that's right after this. they think salmon and energy. but the energy bp produces up here creates something else as well: jobs all over america. engineering and innovation jobs. advanced safety systems & technology. shipping and manufacturing. across the united states, bp supports more than a quarter million jobs. when we set up operation in one part of the country, people in other parts go to work. that's not a coincidence. it's one more part of our commitment to america.
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number of people apprehended crossing our borders has plummeted over the course of the decade. far lower than it was ten years ago. in terms of these unaccompanied children we've systematically worked through the problem so that the surge in june dropped in july, dropped further in august. it's now below where it was last year. but that's not the impression on people's minds. what i want to do is when i take execive action, i want to make sure it's sustainable. >> in the public is not behind you, you're not taking it? >> no, no. what i'm saying is i'm going to act because it's the right thing for the country. but it's going to be more sustainable and effective if the public understands what the facts are on immigration, what we've done for unaccompanied children and why it's necessary. the truth of the matter is that the politics did shift mid summer because of that problem. i want to spend some time even
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as we're getting our ducks in a row for the executive action, i want to make sure the public understands why we're doing this and why it's the right thing for the american people and the american economy. >> that's nbc's chuck todd, the new moderator of "meet the press." the full exclusive interview airs this morning and again here on msnbc at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon. joan, the situation is always interesting. no president is going to say i'm doing this because of politics. one of the explanations you hear the president offering is the whole issue with kids at the border this summer clouded this debate, confused the debate little bit. he's saying we basically need more time here so i can explain exactly when it comes to this specific issue of executive action on immigration reform, exactly what it is i'm doing, how it's separate from that. is there merit to it on those grounds? >> yes, there's a little bit of
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merit. let's give the president some credit for having had a very full plate this summer with global crises one after another. the crisis has subsided in the border. they did some good things. they made a difference. he could have been telling us about that or had somebody telling us about that all summer. there's been time to say, look, we took a crisis, humanitarian as well as political, we did these things. the border -- it's very different now. but to come out and use that as an excuse, people aren't even talking about that anymore. maybe they are in the red states. maybe still a lot of concern. we were all talking about it all the time for a couple weeks. it's kind of faded. it feels like an odd excuse to be using. >> raul, from your standpoint, how confident are you when you hear the president say -- you heard what he said at the start of the summer. he's saying after the elections, end of year, how confident are you that we get to december and get to the elections and he does
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act then? >> i am confident he will act. people are still hopeful that he will. in a very unfortunate way he's painting himself into a corner because the longer he has waited to take his executive action, he's raised the bar on himself. with all this waiting now, people are going to be expecting something tremendous or there will again be disillusionment and disappointment. it's so frustrating to so many immigrant rights groups and latino voters when the president brings up something like the border crisis because, honestly, there's always something where it's syria, the sequester, migrant children at the border, the boston bombing. there's always a reason why we can't do immigration right now. any time you're talking about legalizing or granting a path to citizenship for all these undocumented people, there's never a good time. it's going to be up for the president to mention that as why he had to hang back, that makes people so angry. >> christina.
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>> the politics of this, the president is under scrutiny from his own members of his party in congress for not consulting him on many, many things. there are not many reports saying mark begich picked up the phone and said don't do this. is that really the reason they're doing it or attempting to put something bigger together. people just aren't that confident about it. if they lose a bunch of seats and comes out on november 5th and says now i'm going to do this? >> if the election does not go well for democrats, what is the political climate like after? >> how strange it might be with republicans controlling both chambers. >> and republicans saying can't you interpret an election -- that's an interesting wildcard. the flip side is what if it's a bad day for republicans? two ways to look at it. thanks to attorney raul reyes for joining us. the last primary election day of the year is two days away. in massachusetts democrats are hoping the governor's race is not a repeat of the special
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if you live almost anywhere in this country, the chances are overwhelming that there's one thing you think of when i say martha coakley. january 2010, special senate election in massachusetts for ted kennedy's seat, the fate of the affordable care act seemingly on the line. for democrats, disaster? >> democrats are in disbelief and republicans suddenly inspired by the words senator elect scott brown. he won by five points. that has both parties saying, if it can happen here, what's next for the president and the democratic party? >> if you're a democrat, you probably have some very dark memories of that january night. if you're a republican, you're probably still getting some kind of contact high just from thinking about it. martha coakley lost what was supposed to be an unlosable race
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which explains something funny that happened this past week. coakley is running now in a big election this year, running for governor of massachusetts. the democratic primary is in just two days. she's been leading in that three-way rise by a wide margin all year. if she does win the democratic nomination this tuesday, she'll face republican charlie baker this fall. here is the interesting thing that just happened. last week "the boston globe" released a poll testing a coakley-baker match-up. the globe has been doing this every week all year. every week coakley has been leading, usually by about seven or eight points, high single digits. suddenly, seemingly out of nowhere, the globe released its weekly poll last week. what happened to martha coakley's lead? she was losing all of a sudden by a point. national political observers thought, oh, boy, here we go again, martha coakley blowing another race. here is the thing, in polling there's something called an outlier, a random weird result that shocks you at first before
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you realize it doesn't mean anything at all. it looks like that might be what happened here. two more polls came out this week. in the first one coakley led charlie baker by nine points. in the next she still led by nine points. suddenly that poll that put her behind starts to look like an outlier, a fluke, statistical noise. it turned out at least for now ma that coakley is still doing well against the likely republican candidate. the whole thing shows how much that 2010 special election is hovering over this race right now, hovering over everything martha coakley does. basically the national political world is expecting she's going to blow this race, just waiting for the first sign that it's happening all over again. it's been nearly five years since martha coakley lost that special election to scott brown. she picked herself up after it, ignored all the jokes, all the taunts, got back to work as attorney general, got herself re-elected. the question now, two days before the primary, are democrats ready to give martha coakley another chance.
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joining me, contributing editor of boston magazine, david bernstein. thanks for taking a few minutes. that's the million dollar question with martha coakley. i guess two questions, one involves the primary, one involves the general election. tell us about the primary on tuesday, she leads in the polls. do you think she's going to win this primary on tuesday? >> it certainly looks very good for her. thanks for having me on, steve. it looks very good -- i made the comment a year ago that the course of this election would be does ma that coakley blow it in the primary, does she blow it in the general or does she not blow it or actually get' healthed governor. that's what she's been watching to see. she hasn't fumbled the ball yet. she's been solid. it's been an interesting thing because she's so well known in the commonwealth. something like 97% name recognition before this race even started which is amazing for someone who is not in a major top office. people have very strong opinionses of her and a lot of
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those, especially within the democratic party here and especially with women -- i mean democratic party voters, not so much the establishment but the voters, very positive attitudes towards her. if nothing changes, those kinds of voters are ready to vote -- to be the nominee. >> is that because -- there was a couple debates this past week. in one of them i was watching one of her opponents, a democrat named don very wick turned to her and said scott brown didn't have to be a u.s. senator, you didn't have to lose that election. when you talk about democratic voters who seem happy with her, do they assess her differently and say is not the same ma that coakley or do they just not care at all what happened in 2010? >> i think the general voter is not as obsessed about that as the democratic establishment, insider activist voex, who are looking to someone like don berwick who has run as the most
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progressive liberal in the race or the other candidate, very strong candidate steve grossman who is the state treasure and well known within the democratic party, also. it's more than just she lost the seat. there was a sense at the time within the democratic party establishment that she lost it by taking it for granted, by not working hard, by sort of underestimating scott brown and by not tapping into their help in doing the get-out-the-vote stuff. some of that has been revised, that thinking. people realize it was the time, it was the tea party movement, it was sort of general dissatisfaction with the economy and so forth. so some of that has changed. but there's a real difference between the insider types who still think about that and the general population who sort of moved on. scott brown got elected. a lot of them like scott brownie
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way, whether they want him to be senator or not. they don't obsess over that stuff and what could have been if that 60th democrat had been in the senate at that time. >> you watch these things closely. let's say she's successful on tuesday, she's the democratic nominee and you allude to some of the perceived mistakes in the 2010 campaign. some people may remember curt schilling, shaking hands in the cold at fenway park. do you see a difference in how martha coakley is as a candidate now that would make her stronger if she's the general election candidate now than she was against scott brown? >> a couple of sides to that. on one hand, she has been going out of her way to show she's hard working, out there shaking hands. she had the famous quote of, well, why would i want to be shaking people's hands outside of fenway park in the cold that hauchbted her during that campaign. she's showing she's out there doing that sort of thing. but on the other hand, she also, by the way, in the debate was
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the only one able to name the patriots' back aup quarterback off the top of her head which is impressive. she put some of that to rest. the other side of it is that she ran this safe campaign, this rose garden front-runner campaign of trying not to make mistakes, not taking strong stands on some issues, that does seem to be repeating itself at least in this primary. we'll see what happens after tuesday if she wins the primary. does she become more aggressive in running against charlie baker, the expected republican nominee. >> she got the garoppolo question. >> i want to thank david bernstein from "boston magazine." >> spoken like a massachusetts -- >> that's right. florida, florida, florida, it was true when tim russert wrote about the 2010 election, it's true today between republican rick scott and now candidate for
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his old job charlie crist. that's next. what if this feeling could last all week? with centurylink as your trusted partner, it can. our visionary cloud infrastructure and global broadband network free you to focus on what matters. with custom communications solutions and dedicated support, your business can shine all week long. then you'll know how uncomfortable it can be. [ crickets chirping ] but did you know that the lack of saliva can also lead to tooth decay and bad breath? [ exhales deeply ] [ male announcer ] well there is biotene. specially formulated with moisturizers and lubricants, biotene can provide soothing relief and it helps keep your mouth healthy, too. [ applause ] biotene -- for people who suffer from dry mouth.
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on friday president clinton rallied voters in miami on behalf of former florida governor charlie crist. when he was last elected governor, he was a republican. now he's a democrat trying to win back that same job. >> sitting in harlem, new york, in my office, picked up the paper one day and read that the republican governor of florida had actually signed a bill to restore voting rights to people who had been in prison once they serve their term -- [ cheers and applause ] we didn't know each other. i sat down and wrote him a fan letter. >> if you have a long memory or if you just have access to youtube, the clinton-crist appearance was probably a bit
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awkward. back in 1998 when he was running for the senate in florida as a republican, this is what charlie crist had to say about then president bill clinton. >> regrettably i believe that the president has shattered the confidence and trust of the american people, and i think he needs to be accountable for that. that's why i believe that the best thing he could do for the country would be to resign the office of president. >> crist has remade himself politically, switching parties and embracing the agenda of the democrats left of center base. he's campaigning on raising the minimum wage, expanding medicare, increasing health care enrollment and battling climate change. crist is running against republican rick scott who won a squeaker in the gop wave year of 2010 and saddled with dangerously low approval ratings for his whole term. scott has launched a very expensive and aggressive television ad campaign. three new polls this week show the race to be very competitive with the real clear politics polling average showing a
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two-point difference, scott ahead by two points. with congress gridlocked and tilting towards republicans in november -- florida is the biggest state in the mix and, of course, this has big implications for 2016, too, since it's one of the biggest swing states to decide the presidency. florida's governor has sway over voting days and hours. remember katherine harris, 2000 memories there. here to discuss the state is mark caputo, political writer for "the miami herald" and perry ba baker, junior. >> now just basking in bill clinton's affection and warm words and everything. it strikes me, though, that that is sort of -- right there is one example of the awkwardness of somebody going from being in a
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republican to being a democrat. i wonder in general has that transformation been harder than he expected? has that caused any issues for him in winning over voters in this race? >> i think so. remember crist has gone through certainly in politics a slow motion evolution in that in 2010 is when he left the gop and became an independent and started to tack more and more politically left. scott has spent at least 24 to $26 million, much of it since march and almost all of it has been negative, trained on crist. it's taking a toll. we always talk about how bad negative ads are. the reason politicians use them is that they work. they're certainly working for rick scott which is why, as you mentioned, the polling average is shown with an inside the error margin lead of about two percentage points. >> from afar, i'm not wrong to be surprised by that. i've looked at rick scott's approval numbers and said this guy should be a goner. >> indeed. he barely squeaked into office
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in 2010. that was then a tea party republican year. he only won by about 61,000, less than 62,000 votes. part of the story there is that of south florida, the big urban counties of miami-dade, broward county, voted at the state-wide averages and held the margins as they were, the democrat versus republicans. scott would have lost by 250,000 votes instead of winning by 61,000 votes. the bottom line is that south florida, this big democratic area has a real problem with turnouts, certainly in midterm election years and that, if charlie crist does not get a decent turnout, not a great turnout, just mediocre, he's going to lose. >> perry, in terms of bill clinton's role in this, it's interesting the watch bill clinton -- a lot of people -- this is not the first example of somebody you could think back to during impeachment who now doesn't mind being associated with him. we know what's in it for charlie
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crist. what's in it for bill clinton? can you read bill clinton going into a race like this as part of 2016 vat gee, basically contributing chips that his wife can call in? >> i think it is useful. he's campaigned in arkansas, he's campaigning in maine, campaigned in kentucky. i think he definitely wants to show that bill clinton and team clinton are team players. they're invested in the democratic party to help build the party as other ways as well. i asked crist about the comments of '98. he's a man who changes political views anyway and he rave and raves and raves about whou great of a president bill clinton was which is so striking from 1998. >> must have been the first six years that were so great. the last two years he didn't want him in office anymore. >> mark, in terms of the effect of bill clinton's visit, you talked about the voters that charlie crist needs to mobilize, i noi know that was a big point of emphasis in the speech that bill clinton gave. do you think it has that effect?
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>> i think it does to a degree. one thing you shouldn't do in miami is try to hold a rally at 6:00 p.m. on a friday. usually 6:00 p.m. on friday is when you're dumping bad news, not that bill clinton is coming for you, the newly minted democratic candidate for governor. there is a debate in florida about whether president obama should come down because his poll numbers are going from pretty poor to bad, perhaps abysmal. nevertheless, a big key is black voters. they're a huge part of the democratic party. they overperformed in 2012 and helped president obama win re-election. they underperformed in 2010 and by extension kind of helped rick scott become governor. you're going to need to turn on the black voters. you're going to need to get out there and cause excitement. one fault of charlie crist that he did is when he had a democratic primary opponent, he didn't pay attention to her, he didn't debate her, no buzz over the campaign, not a lot of bus
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over his candidacy, in part because there's been 24, 25, $26 million in negative ads spent against him. that's certainly tough to buzz your way out of. >> probably the most competitive big state, giant state governor's race we'll be talking to you as the year goes on. thank you, mark, for joining us from "the miami herald," hairy bacon, you'll be sticking around. my attempt is to convince you of this, that mitt romney will be running for president again. not as crazy as you might think. i'll try to accept the challenge next. here's something fun to do with hot dogs. make easy crescent dogs. pillsbury crescent rolls. ♪ make dinner pop.
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we wanted to show the tweet we saw this morning from mitt romney's son matt to someone who wants him to run for president? his response was, must have me confused with someone else, can't imagine who. there's been a lot of talk about "can't imagine who" running for president again. if that sounds like crazy talk, i'll try to convince you it's not right on the other side of
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why mitt romney for president again isn't such a crazy idea. two years can be a lifetime in politics. it was in april of 2012 that the aide deputizeded by mitt romney to lead his search for a running mate reported back to him with a list of 11 names. paul ryan, chris christie, marco rubio and a few other names and also the governor of virginia, bob mcdonnell. it made perfect sense that mcdonnell would be on the list. virginia is a crucial swing state. mcdonnell enjoyed an approval rating of over 60%. he delivered a response to the state of union address. romney chose paul ryan instead. that only started a different kind of chatter about the virginia governor. what about the white house in 2016 if romney loses in 2012?
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then came the allegations that a shady businessman plied mcdonnell and his wife with tens of thousands in gifts and cash. then the end of his term as governor, months of legal limbo and the trial. now this week the final chapter, guilty verdicts, 11 of them on federal corruption charges. there's a lot to be said about bob mcdonnell. from a political standpoint, it's easy, it's over. he has no political future. that reality is directly related to an argument i'm about to make that will make people roll their eyes. here it is anyway. i think the talk about mitt romney running for president again in 2016 is kind of serious. it makes more sense than most people think it does. i know he's already lost twice, had all those wealth gaffs, the 47% tape, all that stuff. surely the republican party could do better than that, right? >> that's the thing. i'm not so sure they can.
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i'm not so sure they think they can either. bob mcdonnell is part of the reason wichlt he was a very lodge cam 2016 candidate, now he's a scratch. chris christie was going to be the favorite. he's in bridgegate limbo. marco rubio is taking a pum elling on the right for reading the immigration tea leaves the wrong way. there are some republicans eager to run in 2016. rand paul is out there, ted cruz, mike huckabee making noise, rick santorum as well. they're all candidates of the base. what about the candidate of the establishment, the one who all the elected officials and interest groups and money people rally around who ends up being just acceptable enough to the base. here is a recent poll of the gop candidates from new hampshire, the first in the nation primary state, no one running away with any of it. not much excite 789 about any of these names. now add romney. it's a blowout. here is iowa without romney.
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here it is with him. again, not even close. look closely because both of those polls do include jeb bush. his name is just as big as romney's and sent a signal this week that he's interested in playing that establishment candidate roll in 2016. romney is crushes bush in both of these key early states. i'm not saying those numbers would necessarily hold if romney gets in or he'll beat hillary clinton in a general election. these numbers i think should make you pause for a minute. one knock on the idea of romney running is he would be another michael dukakis or walter mondale or some other losing candidate running again. dukakis and mondale were blown out. remember, losing candidates have gone on to win before. it took nixon two campaigns to get it right. it took ronald reagan three tries. maybe you like mitt romney, maybe you don't like mitt romney. when you hear about him possibly running again in 2016, my advice would be to not dismiss it quite
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so quickly. here to me me if i'm right, wrong or crazy, we have stephen moore as well as roll cal editor and chief christina bellantoni. steve moore, more than anybody at this table, you live in the world i'm talking about. i'll start with you. the case i just made. what's your reaction to it? >> i think you nailed it, steve, actually. i think every argument you made for mitt romney is the argument that establishment republicans are making. when i talk to a lot of the people who are part of that establishment, they say who else is there? i'll tell you the one guy who would sort of stand in his way is jeb bush. everybody is waiting for jeb to see what decision that he makes. he would be a big challenger to romney for that kind of establishment, big money support. but a couple of reasons why what you're saying, steve, is not crazy. one s when i talk to republicans, they're looking at these republicans you've seen that if the election were held
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today, mitt romney would win over barack obama in landslide. that has a lot of republicans salivating. so there is a lot of support for him. he could raise a lot of money right out of the gate. i'd make the case there are a lot of -- this is going to be a field probably of a dozen republicans, people like rick perry, people like mike pounds, people like rand paul, the only reason that mitt romney is way up in the polls is because he's the guy people have heard of. >> i thought that. but they've heard of jeb bush who is sitting at the poll at 6% and mitt romney is at 35. christina, have you seen a situation like this? people say it would be another dukakis and man dale. they weren't polling at 35, 40% a couple years after they lost. >> i compare this more to what happened with al gore. it was this sort of, oh, al gore was right. we didn't give him huff of a chance, the sentiment of democrats come 2002, 2003, 2004. that's why he was atop all those
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polls, even with names like hillary clinton in the mix all the time and obviously john kerry became the nominee. it's not a lot different from hillary clinton now. democrats are strongly considering and strongly favoring going back to the person who didn't win a primary and who wouldn't necessarily be the end-all, be-all part of the presidential vote if i win in the general election. it's not impossible with all the infrastructures there. we spend a lot of time thinking about him. he's not a national figure in the way mitt romney was. he just ran for president. >> the last time jeb bush ran in an election would be 2002, that's 12 years ago. joe, looking at this from your perspective, i guess -- i'm sure democrats would love to run against mitt romney again. >> yes, i development i have mocked it in the past. i think the case you laid out is very clear. he would be a strong candidate. i don't think anybody should take comfort in polls showing voters would elect him again if
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faced with barack obama, presidents had a tough summer and he's not on the ballot. you have to be looking at what he would do against a hillary clinton. you would have two establishment figures. he wouldn't be running against somebody brand new. so they have to take it seriously. but it really is a sign of weakness in the party, that they have not produced another establishment figure. there's a rand paul. there's a ted cruz. they could be formidable with the base. but this establishment is out of gas. i mean christie is in trouble. scott walker gets mentioned. he might not even get re-elected in wisconsin. there's something really broken here if you're going to go back to a mitt romney for a third try. >> that is true. there is no clear favorite. this is the first time in 50 years, steve, that there's no clear favorite for things. i haven't seen that in my lifetime. look at the democrats. look at people like bill clinton, people like barack obama. nobody would have predicted that they were going to merge on the
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big stage the way they did. so the fact that there's no clear front-runner for the republican, i don't think that's a big, big problem. the worry about mitt romney that i hear is that the voters have rejected him. there's this kind of likability factor that he doesn't face. when you talk about romney being potentially the republican nominee in 2016, you know who i think of? adlai stevenson. it didn't work out too well for him. >> no. let me ask you this, is there an indication, just in signals maybe mitt romney is sending behind the scenes among conservatives, among republicans, is there an indication he's considering it? >> absolutely. i think there's no question he wants to run. i think he would like to be drafted as the guy who can beat hillary. i don't think there's any question that mitt romney wants to be president. >> that's amazing, christina.
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>> if you want to be president once, that doesn't go away. hillary clinton is my example. you see operative who didn't love him or worked for another candidate in the primaries increasingly saying, maybe he's right. maybe there are things about his campaign that weren't quite right for the time. but then the president being so popular, he'll talk about another vote that would never happen. that is just another thing that when you think the guy can raise the money, already has a presence in a lot of states. his blessing -- i don't think he's going to run, but none of it is impossible. his blessing is going to mean a lot when it comes to the ultimate republican governor. >> joan, you were get together this a minute ago. it's the psychology of the base of the party. the psychology of the base of the republican party, if they're devoutly anti bam and you see a poll like steve is talking about. they don't want to hear the qualifiers you're saying. it's vindication of their long-held belief. >> yes. i also think we're in a different place with the tea
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party and the conservative wing of the base. it's still strong. we can't write it off. but there's a sense that there's disarray over on that side that there are several tea party folks who seem like they're going to run. they'll split that vote. again, i'm with christina, if you ask me to bet on it, i would bet not. if he wants to do it, i think he also wants to know what he did wrong, 47%. >> sweep the room for microphones and cameras, maybe talk a little differently. >> a quick answer, if you could put a percent on it, what's the chance mitt romney runs? >> i think it's a coin flip. the issue if romney wins, his mandate and his attraction will be one word after this president. competency, that he is competent, that he can do the job. people feel like maybe the guy in the white house right now isn't so competent. >> that's the question, how that resonates with the republican base after eight years of president obama. my thanks to steve moore for
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joining us this morning. appreciate that. still ahead, former six-term mayor who is going to prison and is trying to win his old job back. as political dockbacks go, the most interesting mayoral candidate in america joins us next. [ laughs ] [ male announcer ] with the taste of our chicken florentine farfalle skillets for two. bertolli. italy is served. i am so noh my gosh...now, it's not even funny. driver 1 you ready? yeah! go! [sfx] roaring altima engine woah! ahhhha! we told people they were riding nissan's most advanced altima race car. we lied... about the race car part. altima, with 270 horsepower and active understeer control. how did you?...what! i don't even, i'm speechless. innovation that excites.
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noise in politics coming not from democrats or republicans, but from independents. we'll look at the kansas senate race where an independent has a chance to topple republican senator pat roberts. in alaska the democrat in the governor's race dropped out, agreeing to team up with bill walker who has a chance to win the race. then there's the city of providence, rhode island where democrats hold a primary on tuesday to pick a candidate to run against the candidate who
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has already shaken up that race. that would be independent vincent a. see cianci junior. he's name has been synonymous with that city as mayor where he served for 22 years. he also served time in federal prison which ended his stint in may your in 2002. convicted of one count of racketeering and acquitted in what was known as the operation plunderdome operation. he began hosting a radio show and gave that up in june to take another shot at his old job. >> today with a sense of humility, contrition and confidence, i announce to you my candidacy for mayor of providence. >> he also spent ten years from 1974 to '84 as mayor. he was elected as a reformer, forced to resign after pleading no contest to assaulting a man he believe was having an affair
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with his wife. >> i respectfully submit my resignation as mayor of providence -- >> if he wins this year, it will be buddy cianci's second comeback attempt. now the biggest debate is who can best stop buddy. one candidate, who ray alurza is calling his opponent a buddy clone. they draw from the same well and have very similar constituencies. buddy is much more charismatic, much more of a personality. for his part, the opponent michael solomon says i'm more knowledgeable, i've been cleaning up buddy cianci's mess. buddy cianci joins us from providence, once and possibly future mayor of the city. thank you for taking a few minutes with us this morning. there was a story about your race in "the new york times" this weekend. a political scientist was quoted
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from brown university. she said, quote, there's a sense of panic really growing among a lot of people in providence that buddy cianci could win. where do you think that feeling comes from, that sense of panic? >> well, the fact is that when i was mayor the city of brov dense excelled. we came from a city that needed an awful lot of leadership. i think i provided it and the administration i had provided it. we went from a city that frankly was not exactly something we could be proud of to a city where money magazine said it was the safest city in the country back then. "usa today" called it one of the five renaissance cities, embraced historic preservation, created the first arts district in america, recaptured retail, moved three rivers to create a wonderful park, made our scene one of the top ten in the country. frankly, all those things people remember. >> are there people who are nervous -- when she says a sense
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of panic. are you finding there are some people in the city nervous about having you back as mayor? >> yeah, my opponents. they're the ones nervous. look, they've had many people who wanted to run for mayor and they think i can't win a two-man race, so they've had more dropouts in that race than they've had dropouts in the providence school system. they're afraid of the candidacy because we have had providence. and they think i have baggage. the american way is if you make a mistake, you do your time, whatever you have to do, pay the price. i paid that price. and then you go forward. i've tried to rebuild my life. as i go around the city of providence, people accept me and frankly it's been a really great experience. i think this city needs help. one of the opponents said, clean up my mess. i haven't been in city hall for 12 years. he's been head of the city council for four and on the city council for eight.
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they created a $110 million deficit. when i left there was adds 7 million surplus. the fourth highest property tax in america. the highest car tax in america just about. you know what we've lost? self-esteem. ki restore that and people who support me think i can. we're ahead in the polls and that's all that matters to me. we can give leadership that's so lacking in the city. >> let me hear one specific criticism that i hear. one of the jobs of the mayor is to bring jobs in, bring business in and bring a property tax base into the city. one of the criticisms is you were convicted of a racketeering count back in 2002, there was corruption in your administration it was revealed in that trial. would businesses feel comfortable coming into providence and doing business with somebody with your background as mayor? >> let me tell you, when this alleged corruption was going on, i was found not guilty, of you said, of 16 of 17 charges, whatever it was. i was found guilty of a
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conspiracy to commit a crime i was found not guilty of. when i was mayor we experienced the biggest economic boom. businesses came in, nordstrom, macy's, jc penney. in addition to that we attracted -- built providence place mall. didn't seem to both are them. that's a figment of people's imagination. that's what people are saying. you think businesses are sighing i'm not going to providence because buddy cianci is mayor? we had the biggest economic boom. we created jobs. look at it today, you can take a bowling ball and run it down the streets and not hit anybody. number two, we don't have the confidence. this is a great city. we have great universities, great health care, great historic preservation, great arts community. all those things need to be combined together to once again recapture the greatness of this city and the candidates who are out there now don't have that
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imagination. there's no vision. sometimes there is vision. all the vision in the world without action is a daydream. and all the action in the world without vision is a nightmare. that's what we've had in this city for the past 12 years, $110 million deficit, crime up. people don't feel safe. education system faltering and failing. we need adult supervision. we need leadership, not just rhetoric. i can provide that leadership. >> let me ask you one more question here. it's been a couple months since you came out of your political retirement. you started running for mayor. it's been a while before that since you ran for office. are you finding as a candidate that politics has changed it all since you last ran? >> absolutely. it's changed in many ways, technology. this is the case in every election. i guess technology gets better and better. one of the things in america is we've lost our privacy. you can hire these companies and get into the consumer habits of voters, index, probabilities of voting for you, all those kinds of things. the city of providence is a
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changed city because we've had a chance in demographic. but some of these opponents of mine say he can't get elected because it's a changing city. they think because we've had an increase in latinos. let me tell you something. they think our latino population got here three minutes ago. they've been here for 40 years. i was mayor when they were here and provided not only leadership but a lot of assistance. that's why my biggest support group is in the latino community and the african-american community. as far as i'm concerned, i can win this election because of leadership and because we have proven that we could lead this city and take it to great heights in the past. >> all right. i want to thank buddy cianci, once and maybe future mayor of providence. still ahead, we love debates and rowdy debates. we love it when they cap off the biggest political bombshell of the week, maybe the biggest ones of the year in the most
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this week the political world was rocked by the news that in kansas the democrat was dropping out of the senate race against endangered republican pat roberts. this was good news for democrats or it could be because it consolidates opposition to roberts behind independent candidate greg orman. if greg or man wins and chooses to caucus with democrats in the senate, it could make the difference between democrats holding on to the senate and losing it to republicans. yesterday afternoon orman and roberts met for the first debate and it was lively. the setting was the kansas state fair where a raucous bipartisan crowd cheered and engineered the candidates. not surprisingly the decision of the democrat inning candidate to drop out came up early. >> i've been asked by a lot of people did you have anything to do with it. all i can say is i think our progress in the polls was
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obviously something he had to take into consideration. >> when claire mccaskill calls the democrat candidate and urges him to get off the ballot, something fishy is going on. >> this is a unique situation. it's the first time i heard a republican candidate talk about disenfranchising democratic voters. >> you can hear the crowd there. this was broadcast on the radio. we were listening on our computers yesterday. could not find a video feed of that. roberts used every opportunity to paint orman as a liberal and tie him to democratic majority leader harry reid. >> my opponent has a record for voting for president, running against me as a democrat and donating to harry reid. if you want to make change in washington, get rid of harry reid, put him out to pasture. >> orman presented had a clear stance on the issue of gun
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control. >> i don't think having a loophole that allows people who couldn't get guns at a legitimate gun dealer to get them otherwise is sound policy. [ cheers and applause ] and so i would be open to addressing the gun show loophole. >> roberts also waited until the end of the hour-long debate to push orman ton million dollar question, which party will he caucus with if he wins? orman was saved by the bell. >> i want to know when you're going to take a stand and tell us what party you're going to caucus with. are you going to be a republican one day and a democrat the next and a democrat one day and a republican -- where are you going to be? >> time, senator. time. we hate to end on that note, but we do need to get to the closing statements. >> and joining me now is a "kansas city star" reporter who covered the debate, our resident
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kansas expert, dave helping. i appreciate you taking a few minutes. they started to get into it at the end. democrats nationally are clearly betting that if it comes to it, if they need his vote to decide control of the senate, they'll have greg orman. we had him on the show a few weeks ago, he doesn't seem very interested in answering that question. he didn't have to answer it yesterday. can he get away with not answering that. >> he didn't answer it after the debate either. he met with reporters outside the arena. we asked him, you've got to indicate which party you would prefer if you go to washington. what he has said and continues to say is he will make that decision when he gets to washington based on the party he thinks is addressing the things he wants to see addressed. and i think he also said, look, if it's 50/50 or if it's 50/49 or whatever, i could have enormous influence on who the majority is and minority is in
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the senate. so i just want to sort of wait and see what happens. voters will have to decide for themselves. i do think democrats, as you suggest, are quite interested in electing greg orman in the state of kansas because they do think at the end of the day, he'll end up caucusing with them in washington. >> chad taylor was the democrat i believe candidate in this race and didn't seem to have that much support from his own party, didn't seem to have that much money. do we know about the circumstances that got him out of the race? there's been reports of claire mccaskill maybe playing a role. pat roberts pointing the finger at harry reid. do we know more about what happened there? >> clearly there was o some involvement in terms of talking with chad taylor from washington, chair mccaskill. others may have called. he got advice from democrats in the state, not all of them, but some of them saying, look, chad, here is your problem. it's almost certain that you
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won't win this race. you'll spend a lot of time traveling the state. spend a lot of money. democrats just don't beat republicans at least in the senate races in kansas. the best chance we have to have any chance of removing pat roberts is to get behind greg orman. i think it was an accumulation of advice. it wasn't any one thing. i will tell you on the way to the studio this morning i drove in from kansas and there are chad taylor billboards everywhere. you get the sense, too, that it was a last-minute decision, that he was all in until maybe tuesday of this week when he finally decided to get out. >> i can tell you we had contact with his campaign as of about tuesday, about coming on the show and he seemed open to it until then. let's look at pat roberts. he's taken a lot of heat. there was the very embarrassing story about his residency and basically recliner at a friend's place. the idea, too, he's not been very visible in this state and
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there have been reports certainly from washington republicans that they had been hoping he could retire, they could replace him with a candidate who might not have some of those issues. the pat roberts you saw yesterday at the debate, listening over the radio, i had to say, he was feistier than i expected. what was your impression of him? >> he was feisty. pat roberts, the problem for pat roberts is this, steve, he has not been pushed in a campaign literally in his entire career. he was first elected to the house in 1980, he's a republican in kansas first in the house, then the senate. he really hasn't had a strong opponent. democrats have usually put up bunching bags and he's cruised with 55, 60% of the vote. this time is he not only being challenged, but in two unique ways. first by a tea party republican in the primary. he certainly hasn't ever been primary read before, and now by an independent, not a democrat, who can say like greg orman did yesterday, i want to reform food
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stamps, hey, i own guns, all the things that sort of help an independent in kansas that might not help a democrat. so pat roberts is responding to a campaign environment that he is not used to, and i think yesterday you saw a bit of that struggle. he was reading, if you didn't see it, you wouldn't have known that he's reading from notes, he had a notebook on the podium. so he had to refer to positions on some issues. greg orman, i must say, i thought was very reserved, on point, somebody after the debate said, boy, he sure looked senatorial. that was important for orman as well because a lot of khansans don't know who he is. >> that's interesting about the notes. i heard it on the roorks i heard it online and i didn't see pat roberts. that's an interesting point there. there was a gubernatorial debate, sam brownbeck and davis. i think kansas is the funnest,
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most interesting political state to be in this year. we'll talk to you more. dave helling, appreciate it this morning. still ahead, even within the blue democratic party, some voters are redder than others. we'll explain. that's next. and startup ny companies will be investing hundreds of millions of dollars in jobs and infrastructure. thanks to startup ny, businesses can operate tax free for 10 years. no property tax. no business tax. and no sales tax. which means more growth for your business, and more jobs. it's not just business as usual. see how new york can help your business grow, at startup.ny.gov we used to have so many emptymom!ls! that's why we switched to charmin ultra mega roll. charmin ultra mega roll is 75% more absorbent so you can use less with every go. plus it even lasts longer than the leading thousand sheet brand. charmin ultra mega roll. when your favorite food starts a fight fight back fast
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about the race car part. altima, with 270 horsepower and active understeer control. how did you?...what! i don't even, i'm speechless. innovation that excites. when bill clinton campaigns in kentucky with senate candidate alison grimes, he's obviously there to support the candidacy of the democrat trying to unseat mitch mcconnell, the top republican in the senate. there's also indications that he is there to support his wife, hillary clinton. in some ways the bluegrass state might be bluer than it first appears. kentucky has a democratic governor right now, steve bashir. the state exchange that bashir developed, a program called kynect is not only a state example, lots of people in kentucky seems to like it, as
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long as you don't call it obamacare even though that's what it is. president clinton won the state of kentucky twice in the 1990s. then senator hillary clinton beat barack obama in kentucky in 2008, although we should point out at that time the race was effectively decided for obama when that primary was held. in fact, hillary clinton didn't just win kentucky in 2008, these are the county-by-county results with shades of variation to reflect how heavily a candidate prevailed. john edwards won the greener counties, barack obama won the bluish-purple ones and hillary clinton took the red counties. look from arkansas through kentucky up to west virginia, all the way to parts of upstate new york. that right there is hillary clinton country. that's what we learned in the 2008 campaign. it could explain why a political couple when they left arkansas when they left the white house has been working so hard to maintain their political network there. "the washington post" reports
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the clinton's allies maintained that hillary would put the state in play in the 2016 general election, even though arkansas has become very republican in the two decades since bill clinton won in the 1990s. is this map an accurate indicator of what may happen in 2016, could hillary clinton win kentucky, everywhere else that is bright red on this map? could she win a general election there or were there other factors at play in the 2008 primaries, things that would take that wide swath of voters and make them more republican no matter which democrat is running? here to discuss this, we have political consultant steve jarding, nbc political reporter hairy back con, political science professor thomas shall lore, the author of "whistling past dixie," and msnbc political analyst joan walsh is back with
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us. tom shallot, you literally wrote the book on this. let me start with you. the article being made by people around the clintons is arkansas, kentucky, west virginia, missouri, these are states that barack obama didn't carry in 2008 or 2012, they've become more republican at the presidential level, but that bill clinton carried. they are saying that democrats can get back. do you think that argument has merit? >> not really. that strip along appalachia where she did well in the democratic primary, that's democratic voters. that's what you saw two days after the 2008 election when barack obama despite a ten-point shift -- bua ten-point net shif in 2008, those counties went more republican. >> as the rest of the country was going to the democrats in 2008 -- >> the notion here is that
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hillary clinton, maybe because she's clinton and her husband is from arkansas and i guess she's from arkansas and it's white voters, she can bring some of them back. i think she will bring some of them back. the real problem, maybe joan can address it, is going to be the gender gap. the gender gap is a white voter phenomena. if you look at the swing states from the last election, last few elections, southern states have very little gender gap. it's the non-southern states. >> is there a reason? >> why women vote the same way. there were elections in obama's election when white women voted more for republican men. hillary clinton, the first female presidential nominee is going to have a gender problem. >> steve jarding, i guess you xould say it's a swath of
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appalachian territory going from eastern oklahoma up to west virginia, maybe a little farther north. these are the areas that have been the most hostile to barack obama. in a lot of those area, there's an older democratic tradition. do you think looking at the national map, your party's best days are behind it there? >> well, it appears that it is. i think in part, and tom and i have had this debate in the past, that part of the problem for democrats is that they effectively have written off the south. john kerry famously at the democratic convention when he was nominated, essentially announced he was not going to campaign in the south. i don't believe that in any political election, certainly presidential election, you begin with subtracting voters. i understand the demographics that you have to look at. i think politics is the art of tradition, not subtraction. having said that, if a democratic candidate looks at the sungtd says i need to spend some time there, i really think
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in an economic model, you could turn votes. >> steve, not all states are created equal when it comes to politics. there's a difference between democratic prospects in kentucky versus mississippi. where do you think the democrats -- what are their best chances for making back ground in the south? >> i think that's right. you go further south and i suspect it's a little more difficult. although with some of the change in demographics with latino voters, in a generation or so, we may see that changing. i think it's more in those mid states, if you go from arkansas, missouri, kentucky, potentially into the carolinas, i think there's hope there. one of the reasons i think democrats have to at some point figure this out, if you look at where voters are going to reside in this country in the next generation, 10, 15 years from now, 40% of the population in the united states is going to be in the south. democrats i think at some point need to figure out that we can't just keep writing it off. i believe, and i've written about this, that if democrats
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talk about issues, economic issues, if they go in and get past the polarizing single issues and make a case that democrats are trying to help the economic lot of people that live in the south, still rather depressed area like much of rural america has been for generations, that that's our best argument. i'm still waiting for the democrat that will do that. i think if they spend time there in the south and work the south, that they've got a chance to win. it's tough right now. i get that. i do think the demographics are changing and i think the opportunities will change with them. >> what do you think of this, joan? >> i think they change state by state. you have a situation in georgia where people are looking at the black vote and thinking michelle nun has the chance because of the black vote and if you can do something in the midterm that you can do in presidential years, that's ooh real shot for her. to pick up on what tom was saying, there are variations. kay hagan in north carolina, a purple state, she has a gender gap working for her. allison lungren grimes did.
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i don't know what the latest polls are telling us. there was a gender gap between black men and black women. black women were barack obama's strongest supporters. i think you saw it a little bit in virginia with terry mcauliffe. we risk being very stereotypical about the south. i know you're trying to zero in on these particular states. i would like to see hillary clinton contest for them. i think it will be tough if she faces a rand paul, for example, that would be an interesting race in kentucky. >> that takes -- perry bacon from kentucky, when you look at the specific states here that the clintons are talking about, do you think hillary clinton in 2016 could win back the state that bill clinton got in the '09s and have been gone in the obama era. >> i think the key issue is coal. particularly kentucky and west virginia, those are
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coal-producing states. hillary clinton is going to be lead ag party focused on climate change, limiting carbon emissions. that's going to be really tough for her. no matter what she says, she's closer to the environmental condition and who the republican nominee will be. the second point is, the democrats who are doing well in the south, you look at bibi in arkansas, bashir in kentucky, manchin, they're able to appeal. they talk country, connect with rural people very well. bill clinton does that still i think at that stage. i don't feel like hillary clinton has that kind of connection with those voters in the same way. i think that's going to be hard to do. i feel like if hillary clinton can win kentucky, she can probably win ohio by many more points and probably will spend most of her time there instead of changing a state that's not culturally with her. >> joan says she doesn't know what the latest polls say. i do, hot off the presses. we have new polling data, some surprising numbers. that's my tease.
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all right. three new polls from three battleground senate races. arkansas, mark pryor, democratic incumbent, against tom cotton. the poll has mark pryor trailing by fife points. if you look inside arkansas, president obama's approval rating in arkansas, 31%, bill clinton's rating 62%. clinton expected to be campaigning there in the next month. move to kentucky, mitch mcconnell in a tough race. an eight-point lead, the largest gap i've seen all year. look closer at the favorability ratings. finally, in the state of colorado, mark udall defending against republican cory gardner,
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up six in the new poll. again, obama's approval rating a little better there. to those are the latest numbers. tom, we talk about the south and the future for the democratic party there. there's two kind of democrats, a clinton democrat and obama democrat. >> clinton states are louisiana, arkansas, tennessee, gore's home state, kentucky. right? obama's states are new south states, the states with the most nonnative southerners -- florida, virginia, north carolina. so democrats are going to win the south, not the bubba states. all respect to steve, i think the bubba argument is over. the notion that democrats are going to win with economic. y populism if they can't after the greatest financial crisis in 60 years, when are they going to win? when are white working class southerners going to move democratic if not in 2008, 2009?
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>> democrats winning the south with nonsouthern voters. i have to apologize. i want this to go on so much longer. we lost a little time in other segments and i have to cut it short. thanks to all of you. what should we know for the week ahead? answers after this. us. so now we've turned her toffee into a business. my goal was to take an idea and make it happen. i'm janet long and i formed my toffee company through legalzoom. i never really thought i would make money doing what i love. we created legalzoom to help people start their business and launch their dreams. go to legalzoom.com today and make your business dream a reality. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side. hello! three grams daily of beta-glucan... a soluable fiber from whole grain oat foods like cheerios can help lower cholesterol. thank you!
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all right. what should we know? >> roll call is revealing its 50 richest member of congress list on twitter over the next few hours. i'm going to reveal number 50. this is florida republican tom rooney. he is of the rooney family of the pittsburgh steelers fame, in fact. he is worth at least $7.47 million in net worth. >> that makes him number 50. @rollcall on twitter. >> my prediction is this week and 10, 15 years from now. this week will be the week remembered as the week latinos
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turned on obama. >> jill? >> this is the week we'll figure how good the president is with damage control with a critical part of his base. he'll be doing a lot of work in next few days. >> again, if we get to december and he du it then, we'll see how that worked, the damage control. also the patriots win their first game. thanks to all of you. thank you for joining us. back next weekend saturday, sunday, 8:00 a.m. eastern time. up next, melissa harris-perry. don't just dream of being the hero. make it happen. i can't believe we're missing the game for this. we're not-- i've got xlte. it doubles our 4g lte bandwidth in cities nationwide, so be that guy with verizon xlte. now get 1gb of bonus data, and our best pricing ever on the more everything plan.
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